Pablo Carreno Busta vs Holger RuneMetz Quarter-final

Metz · ATP · Quarter-final
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 September 2021
hard
#81ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
Carreno Busta P.
6-4 3-6 6-4
Rune H.
Carreno Busta P.
6362
Rune H.
4641

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Holger Rune 6-4 3-6 6-4 in the Metz quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-13Davis Cup QLS R2: DEN vs ESPRRclayHolger Rune7-5 6-3
2024-08-05Canada MastersR32hardHolger Rune6-1 6-3
2022-08-08Canada MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-0 6-3
2022-06-13HalleR32grassPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-6(5)

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Rune H.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Rune H.
21
Serve
47
44
Return
58

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
61%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.6
5.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (197 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
91
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Clear edge
61
84
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
98
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7+20 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.3Hard Elo 1725
4.7Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1757
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.1
Surface form
5.3
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.1
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
94

Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast