Peyton Stearns vs Madison Keys — Rome Round of 32

Rome · WTA · Round of 32
Peyton Stearns
USA
Peyton Stearns
#63WTA
1804ELO
1756Clay ELO
$476kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 6 May 2025
clay
Madison Keys
USA5
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1894Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Stearns P.
2-6 6-2 7-6
Keys M.
Stearns P.
26772
Keys M.
62631

Peyton Stearns defeated Madison Keys 2-6 6-2 7-6 in the Rome round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #22, defending last year's quarter-final, but Peyton Stearns had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Peyton Stearns extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-08RomeR64clayMadison Keys4-6 6-4 6-2
2024-08-05TorontoR32hardPeyton Stearns3-6 7-5 3-0 RET
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Stearns P.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Stearns P.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Stearns P.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
4.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.9
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (58 vs 66). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Stearns P.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
73
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
96
Break points won·Slight edge
98
90
Deciding sets·Dominant
51
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
90
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Stearns P.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Keys M.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Clay Elo 1756
Surface ELO
6.7+138 Clay Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1804
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.1
Surface form
7.3
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
5.8
Minutes 14d
6.3
4.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
5.7
Context
5.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Stearns P.Keys M.
Freshness·Clear edge
96
77

Stearns P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Keys M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
19°CRain
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw

Final
Paolini J.[6]
Gauff C.[4]
6-46-2
Semi-finals
Gauff C.[4]
Zheng Q.[8]
7-634-67-64
Paolini J.[6]
Stearns P.
7-56-1
Quarter-finals
Zheng Q.[8]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-46-3
Paolini J.[6]
Shnaider D.[13]
6-716-46-2
Stearns P.
Svitolina E.[16]
6-24-67-64
Gauff C.[4]
Andreeva M.[7]
6-47-65
R16
Gauff C.[4]
Raducanu E.
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostyuk M.
6-17-68
Paolini J.[6]
Ostapenko J.[17]
7-56-2
Svitolina E.[16]
Collins D.[29]
6-46-2
Zheng Q.[8]
Andreescu B.
7-56-1
Andreeva M.[7]
Tauson C.[22]
5-76-36-2
Stearns P.
Osaka N.
6-43-67-64
Shnaider D.[13]
Mertens E.[25]
6-26-3
R32
Ostapenko J.[17]
Siegemund L.
W/O
Andreescu B.
Rybakina E.[11]
6-26-4
Andreeva M.[7]
Noskova L.[30]
6-17-5
Paolini J.[6]
Jabeur O.[27]
6-46-3
Shnaider D.[13]
Cristian J.
6-36-3
Osaka N.
Bouzkova M.
4-66-36-3
Svitolina E.[16]
Baptiste H.
6-43-66-4
Kostyuk M.
Fernandez L.[24]
6-46-2
Raducanu E.
Kudermetova V.
5-76-06-1
Stearns P.
Keys M.[5]
2-66-27-63
Gauff C.[4]
Linette M.[32]
7-56-3
Tauson C.[22]
Navarro E.[10]
3-66-06-4
Collins D.[29]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-17-5
Zheng Q.[8]
Frech M.[26]
6-36-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kenin S.[31]
3-66-36-3
Mertens E.[25]
Pegula J.[3]
7-56-1
R64
Andreescu B.
Vekic D.[20]
6-13-66-2
Raducanu E.
Teichmann J.
6-26-2
Paolini J.[6]
Sun L.
6-46-3
Jabeur O.[27]
Kvitova P.
W/O
Kenin S.[31]
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-36-0
Tauson C.[22]
Volynets K.
7-54-1
Cristian J.
Putintseva Y.[23]
7-627-5
Rybakina E.[11]
Lys E.
7-636-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Potapova A.
6-26-2
Shnaider D.[13]
Dolehide C.
6-06-0
Swiatek I.[2]
Cocciaretto E.
6-16-0
Mertens E.[25]
Lamens S.
3-66-26-3
Ostapenko J.[17]
Sramkova R.
1-66-46-3
Andreeva M.[7]
Arango E.
6-26-4
Zheng Q.[8]
Danilovic O.
6-16-4
Collins D.[29]
Ruse E.
6-36-3
Kudermetova V.
Anisimova A.[15]
7-657-5
Siegemund L.
Bronzetti L.
6-26-2
Navarro E.[10]
Rakhimova K.
6-16-3
Linette M.[32]
Sakkari M.
1-66-46-1
Kostyuk M.
Kasatkina D.[14]
6-46-2
Fernandez L.[24]
Ruzic A.
6-46-0
Frech M.[26]
Azarenka V.
7-56-4
Gauff C.[4]
Mboko V.
3-66-26-1
Noskova L.[30]
Kartal S.
6-46-2
Pegula J.[3]
Krueger A.
6-46-2
Keys M.[5]
Gracheva V.
7-646-1
Bouzkova M.
Haddad Maia B.[18]
6-06-3
Osaka N.
Golubic V.
2-67-56-1
Svitolina E.[16]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-47-62
Baptiste H.
Samsonova L.[19]
6-32-66-4
Stearns P.
Kalinskaya A.[28]
6-26-3
R128
Cocciaretto E.
Avanesyan E.
6-24-66-1
Sakkari M.
Bencic B.
6-20-0
Bouzkova M.
Sherif M.
6-27-5
Kostyuk M.
Eala A.
6-06-1
Azarenka V.
Osorio C.
6-26-3
Danilovic O.
Siniakova K.
3-66-46-4
Kudermetova V.
Stefanini L.
7-56-2
Sramkova R.
Kessler M.
6-36-3
Lys E.
Uchijima M.
6-16-0
Potapova A.
Yastremska D.
2-67-666-3
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Li A.
6-35-77-63
Baptiste H.
Blinkova A.
7-676-4
Sun L.
Pedone G.
3-66-16-3
Mboko V.
Zucchini A.
6-26-3
Andreescu B.
Urgesi F.
6-06-3
Kvitova P.
Begu I.
7-56-1
Ruzic A.
Grant T.
3-66-37-5
Stearns P.
Brancaccio N.
6-36-2
Osaka N.
Errani S.
6-26-3
Ruse E.
Kudermetova P.
6-7106-46-2
Kartal S.
Birrell K.
4-66-36-4
Lamens S.
Zarazua R.
6-11-66-1
Bronzetti L.
Sevastova A.
6-36-4
Pavlyuchenkova A.
Boulter K.
6-36-3
Raducanu E.
Joint M.
7-56-716-3
Rakhimova K.
Wang X.
6-36-2
Volynets K.
Rus A.
6-36-3
Arango E.
Tomova V.
7-665-76-4
Dolehide C.
Gadecki O.
7-655-76-2
Cristian J.
Parks A.
6-26-0
Krueger A.
Bondar A.
4-66-26-1
Gracheva V.
Tomljanovic A.
6-36-4