Matteo Arnaldi vs Frances TiafoeMadrid Masters Round of 16

Madrid Masters · ATP · Round of 16
#104ATP
1763ELO
1756Clay ELO
$302kYTD
$4.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 23 April 2025
clay
#22ATP
1866ELO
1791Clay ELO
$980kYTD
$17MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLW

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Frances Tiafoe 6-3 7-5 in the Madrid Masters round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Frances Tiafoe came in ranked #22, defending last year's round of 64, but Matteo Arnaldi had been the form player, winning 9 of their last 10 on clay. Matteo Arnaldi extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Clay Elo 1756
Surface ELO
6.0+35 Clay Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1763
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1866
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.5
Surface form
5.1
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.8
Minutes 14d
8.4
7.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Arnaldi M.
672
Tiafoe F.
350

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
0.84
SlowFast
Weather
15°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 59%

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-01Roland GarrosR16clayMatteo Arnaldi6.5-7.7 7.7-6.5 6-3 6.3-7.7 4-6
2024-07-01WimbledonR128grassFrances Tiafoe6-7(5) 2-6 6-1 6-3 6-3

Statistics

Recent form
56%1st serve in+6%62%
66%1st serve points won+7%73%
49%2nd serve points won+5%54%
59%Service points won+7%66%
39%Return points won+4%35%
60%Break points saved+5%65%
4.3Aces / match+1.96.2
4.4Double faults / match+31.4

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (19 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw