

Holger Rune defeated Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-4 in the Indian Wells Masters semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Daniil Medvedev came in ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's final, but Holger Rune had been the form player, winning 2 of their last 4 on hard. Holger Rune narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | QF | hard | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | F | clay | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 7-5 |
| 2023-04-10 | Monte Carlo Masters | QF | clay | Holger Rune | 6-3 6-4 |
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (55 vs 108). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Medvedev D.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About