Mirra Andreeva vs Aryna Sabalenka — Indian Wells Final

Indian Wells · WTA · Final
Mirra Andreeva
RUS9
Mirra Andreeva
#5WTA
2074ELO
1994Hard ELO
$5.4MYTD
$13MCAREER
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
hard
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Andreeva M.
2-6 6-4 6-3
Sabalenka A.
Andreeva M.
2662
Sabalenka A.
6431

Mirra Andreeva defeated Aryna Sabalenka 2-6 6-4 6-3 in the Indian Wells final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's round of 16, but Mirra Andreeva had arrived on a 6-match winning run. Mirra Andreeva narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

1–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2
2024-12-30BrisbaneSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2024-05-27Roland GarrosQFclayMirra Andreeva6-7(5) 6-4 6-4
2024-04-22MadridQFclayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2023-04-24MadridR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Andreeva M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Andreeva M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Andreeva M.Sabalenka A.
46
Serve
96
96
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Andreeva M.Sabalenka A.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (81 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Andreeva M.Sabalenka A.
Clutch Rating·Even
94
98
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
94
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Andreeva M.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Sabalenka A.
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1994
Surface ELO
8.0+208 Hard Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 2074
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 2220
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.6
Surface form
6.1
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0
Opponent rise
2.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Andreeva M.Sabalenka A.
Freshness·Slight edge
91
84

Andreeva M.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 27%

Draw

Final
Andreeva M.[9]
Sabalenka A.[1]
2-66-46-3
Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Keys M.[5]
6-06-1
Andreeva M.[9]
Swiatek I.[2]
7-611-66-3
Quarter-finals
Andreeva M.[9]
Svitolina E.[23]
7-56-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Zheng Q.[8]
6-36-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Samsonova L.[24]
6-26-3
Keys M.[5]
Bencic B.
6-16-1
R16
Swiatek I.[2]
Muchova K.[15]
6-16-1
Keys M.[5]
Vekic D.[19]
4-67-676-3
Andreeva M.[9]
Rybakina E.[7]
6-16-2
Svitolina E.[23]
Pegula J.[4]
5-76-16-2
Bencic B.
Gauff C.[3]
3-66-36-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kartal S.
6-16-2
Zheng Q.[8]
Kostyuk M.[18]
6-36-2
Samsonova L.[24]
Paolini J.[6]
6-06-4
R32
Kartal S.
Kudermetova P.
7-56-3
Rybakina E.[7]
Boulter K.[25]
6-07-5
Zheng Q.[8]
Sun L.
6-47-5
Samsonova L.[24]
Kasatkina D.[12]
2-66-36-2
Pegula J.[4]
Wang X.
6-26-1
Bencic B.
Shnaider D.[13]
6-46-4
Svitolina E.[23]
Collins D.[14]
6-26-4
Vekic D.[19]
Navarro E.[10]
7-656-1
Keys M.[5]
Mertens E.[28]
6-26-786-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Bronzetti L.
6-16-2
Swiatek I.[2]
Yastremska D.
6-06-2
Kostyuk M.[18]
Dolehide C.
6-36-3
Andreeva M.[9]
Tauson C.[22]
6-36-0
Muchova K.[15]
Siniakova K.
7-56-1
Gauff C.[3]
Sakkari M.[29]
7-616-2
Paolini J.[6]
Cristian J.
6-43-66-4
R64
Sakkari M.[29]
Tomova V.
6-06-3
Siniakova K.
Putintseva Y.[21]
6-26-2
Svitolina E.[23]
Krueger A.
6-16-786-3
Bencic B.
Anisimova A.[17]
6-46-736-1
Kasatkina D.[12]
Kenin S.
3-67-56-4
Shnaider D.[13]
Parks A.
6-16-1
Navarro E.[10]
Cirstea S.
3-66-17-63
Keys M.[5]
Potapova A.
6-36-0
Boulter K.[25]
Begu I.
6-726-36-0
Andreeva M.[9]
Gracheva V.
7-56-4
Tauson C.[22]
Osorio C.
7-637-5
Pegula J.[4]
Linette M.
6-46-2
Sun L.
Noskova L.[31]
6-16-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Garcia C.
6-26-0
Kudermetova P.
Alexandrova E.[20]
7-56-2
Mertens E.[28]
Birrell K.
6-47-5
Gauff C.[3]
Uchijima M.
6-43-67-64
Cristian J.
Fernandez L.[27]
5-77-656-3
Kartal S.
Haddad Maia B.[16]
6-26-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
7-646-3
Rybakina E.[7]
Lamens S.
6-36-3
Muchova K.[15]
Cocciaretto E.
6-46-3
Bronzetti L.
Frech M.[30]
6-37-5
Samsonova L.[24]
Mcnally C.
7-686-4
Dolehide C.
Lys E.
7-636-4
Yastremska D.
Jabeur O.[32]
6-36-1
Zheng Q.[8]
Azarenka V.
6-36-4
Vekic D.[19]
Avanesyan E.
6-36-3
Kostyuk M.[18]
Montgomery R.
6-16-3
Wang X.
Ostapenko J.[26]
6-46-4
Collins D.[14]
Baptiste H.
5-76-26-4
Paolini J.[6]
Jovic I.
7-631-66-3
R128
Cocciaretto E.
Zarazua R.
6-41-0
Mcnally C.
Tomljanovic A.
6-40-0
Dolehide C.
Rakhimova K.
6-27-63
Wang X.
Sherif M.
6-47-5
Tomova V.
Danilovic O.
6-26-3
Potapova A.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-756-47-5
Osorio C.
Osaka N.
6-46-4
Linette M.
Stearns P.
6-44-66-3
Montgomery R.
Niemeier J.
3-67-56-2
Yastremska D.
Yuan Y.
6-26-4
Siniakova K.
Carle M.
6-26-1
Garcia C.
Pera B.
6-36-4
Azarenka V.
Ngounoue C.
6-47-67
Baptiste H.
Osuigwe W.
6-16-2
Lamens S.
Bouzkova M.
3-66-36-3
Kudermetova P.
Liu C.
6-46-2
Begu I.
Li A.
7-53-66-1
Bronzetti L.
Kalinina A.
6-47-5
Cirstea S.
Joint M.
6-27-5
Jovic I.
Grabher J.
2-67-56-0
Uchijima M.
Raducanu E.
6-36-2
Gracheva V.
Kvitova P.
4-66-36-4
Cristian J.
Kudermetova V.
6-26-3
Kessler M.
Blinkova A.
6-16-2
Kenin S.
Inglis M.
6-26-1
Bencic B.
Maria T.
6-16-1
Parks A.
Kalinskaya A.
6-46-3
Avanesyan E.
Davis L.
6-46-2
Krueger A.
Volynets K.
0-66-26-2
Birrell K.
Golubic V.
6-46-4
Kartal S.
Lepchenko V.
7-666-2
Sun L.
Sramkova R.
6-31-67-62