Denis Shapovalov vs Alex MichelsenAcapulco Round of 16

Acapulco · ATP · Round of 16
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 February 2025
hard
#46ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$785kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLW
Shapovalov D.
6-4 6-3
Michelsen A.
Shapovalov D.
662
Michelsen A.
430

Denis Shapovalov defeated Alex Michelsen 6-4 6-3 in the Acapulco round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Denis Shapovalov came in ranked #41.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Shapovalov D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Michelsen A.

Michelsen A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shapovalov D.Michelsen A.
25
Serve
34
70
Return
46

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.7
5.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (62 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
85
78
Break points saved·Even
99
98
Break points won·Dominant
71
46
Deciding sets·Even
92
91
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1775
Surface ELO
5.2+35 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1825
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
7.9
Surface form
6.0
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
98
61

Shapovalov D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Michelsen A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 67%