Alex Michelsen vs Stefanos TsitsipasTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 32
#46ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$785kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 25 September 2024
hard
#87ATP
1833ELO
1803Hard ELO
$992kYTD
$38MCAREER
27 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLWW
Michelsen A.
4-6 6-1 6-2
Tsitsipas S.
Michelsen A.
4662
Tsitsipas S.
6121

Alex Michelsen defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 4-6 6-1 6-2 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Alex Michelsen came in ranked #46, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Alex Michelsen extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-16HalleR16grassAlex Michelsen7-6(5) 7-5
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128hardAlex Michelsen7-5 6-3 2-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Michelsen A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Tsitsipas S.

Tsitsipas S.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Michelsen A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Michelsen A.Tsitsipas S.
34
Serve
57
46
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
67%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.9
6.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (157 vs 125). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
90
Break points saved·Even
98
100
Break points won·Dominant
46
77
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
99
Tiebreaks·Even
96
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 37 days (−1.0)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9+8 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.1Hard Elo 1803
4.5Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1833
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.3
Surface form
5.6
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.2
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
67
94

Michelsen A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 55 games (7d) · Tsitsipas S.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 31 km/hHumidity 64%