Denis Shapovalov vs Tommy PaulDallas Semi-final

Dallas · ATP · Semi-final
#39ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 3 February 2025
hard
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Shapovalov D.
7-5 6-3
Paul T.
Shapovalov D.
762
Paul T.
530

Denis Shapovalov defeated Tommy Paul 7-5 6-3 in the Dallas semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #24, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending the title. Denis Shapovalov narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-15Cincinnati MastersR32hardDenis Shapovalov3-6 6-4 6-3
2022-06-13Queen's ClubR32grassTommy Paul6-4 2-6 6-4
2021-11-08StockholmFhardTommy Paul6-4 2-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Shapovalov D.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Serve advantage — Paul T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shapovalov D.Paul T.
21
Serve
71
63
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
39%
Break points saved·Even
59%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.7
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (62 vs 66). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
85
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Clear edge
71
87
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1775
Surface ELO
6.0+106 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1949
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.5
Surface form
6.7
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Prev. match
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
91

Shapovalov D.: 15 days rest · Paul T.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast