Denis Shapovalov vs Tommy PaulCincinnati Masters Round of 32

Cincinnati Masters · ATP · Round of 32
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 15 August 2022
hard
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Shapovalov D.
3-6 6-4 6-3
Paul T.
Shapovalov D.
3662
Paul T.
6431

Denis Shapovalov defeated Tommy Paul 3-6 6-4 6-3 in the Cincinnati Masters round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 32. Denis Shapovalov narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-03DallasSFhardDenis Shapovalov7-5 6-3
2022-06-13Queen's ClubR32grassTommy Paul6-4 2-6 6-4
2021-11-08StockholmFhardTommy Paul6-4 2-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Shapovalov D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shapovalov D.Paul T.
25
Serve
71
70
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Even
63%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.3
6.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
85
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Clear edge
71
87
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1775
Surface ELO
6.0+106 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1949
0.0
H2H
10.0
3.9
Surface form
6.4
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.5
Minutes 14d
4.1
7.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
5.7
Country comfort
7.3
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
98
86

Shapovalov D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Paul T.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 70%