Tommy Paul vs Denis ShapovalovStockholm Final

Stockholm · ATP · Final
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 8 November 2021
hard
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Paul T.
6-4 2-6 6-4
Shapovalov D.
Paul T.
6262
Shapovalov D.
4641

Tommy Paul defeated Denis Shapovalov 6-4 2-6 6-4 in the Stockholm final on hard. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25. Tommy Paul narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul closed it out in three sets, 6–4 2–6 6–4.

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-03DallasSFhardDenis Shapovalov7-5 6-3
2022-08-15Cincinnati MastersR32hardDenis Shapovalov3-6 6-4 6-3
2022-06-13Queen's ClubR32grassTommy Paul6-4 2-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Shapovalov D.
71
Serve
25
54
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.1
8.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.1
6.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
85
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Clear edge
87
71
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
92
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 35 days (−1.0)
Form & Matchup
6.0+106 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 1775
6.5Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1771
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
3.4
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.5
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
86
98

Paul T.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Shapovalov D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
3°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%