Yoshihito Nishioka vs Frances TiafoeDallas Round of 16

Dallas · ATP · Round of 16
#177ATP
1689ELO
1659Hard ELO
$42kYTD
$7.5MCAREER
30 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 3 February 2025
hard
#17ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Nishioka Y.
3-6 6-4 6-3
Tiafoe F.
Nishioka Y.
3662
Tiafoe F.
6431

Yoshihito Nishioka defeated Frances Tiafoe 3-6 6-4 6-3 in the Dallas round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Frances Tiafoe came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's quarter-final, but Yoshihito Nishioka had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Yoshihito Nishioka narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

14
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR128hardFrances Tiafoe6-3 7-6(6) 6-3
2024-07-22AtlantaQFhardYoshihito Nishioka7-6(2) 6-2
2023-02-27AcapulcoR32hardFrances Tiafoe7-6(6) 6-4
2021-08-09Canada MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-3
2019-04-29EstorilR16clayFrances Tiafoe2-6 6-3 7-6(5)

Serve vs return

This season
Nishioka Y.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Tiafoe F.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Nishioka Y.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nishioka Y.Tiafoe F.
Serve
38
Return
37

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Even
58%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.8
7.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 68). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
84
83
Break points saved·Even
95
99
Break points won·Even
59
57
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
92
Tiebreaks·Even
97
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1659
Surface ELO
7.3+202 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1689
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1918
5.4
H2H
4.6
6.6
Surface form
4.7
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
0.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
79

Tiafoe F.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast