Tomas Machac vs Flavio CobolliUnited Cup Quarter-final

United Cup · ATP · Quarter-final
#49ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 27 December 2024
hard
#10ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
Machac T.
6-1 6-2
Cobolli F.
Machac T.
662
Cobolli F.
120

Tomas Machac defeated Flavio Cobolli 6-1 6-2 in the United Cup quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Flavio Cobolli came in ranked #10, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Tomas Machac claimed a first win over Flavio Cobolli in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-27Paris MastersR64hardFlavio Cobolli6-1 6-4
2025-10-20ViennaR32hardFlavio Cobolli7-6(6) 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Machac T.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Cobolli F.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Machac T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Machac T.Cobolli F.
30
Serve
20
25
Return
35

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Even
5.6
5.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (121 vs 159). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
90
76
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Dominant
80
35
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Even
97
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 60 days (−1.0)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 67 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.2+20 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1810
4.5Overall Elo 1866
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1896
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.4
Surface form
5.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
61

Cobolli F.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
35°CMainly clear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 34%