Holger Rune vs Alexander Bublik — Paris Masters Round of 32

Paris Masters · ATP · Round of 32
Holger Rune
DEN13
Holger Rune
#77ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 28 October 2024
hard
Alexander Bublik
KAZ
Alexander Bublik
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
Rune H.
6-4 6-2
Bublik A.
Rune H.
662
Bublik A.
420

Holger Rune defeated Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-2 in the Paris Masters round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Bublik came in ranked #11, defending last year's round of 16, but Holger Rune had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Holger Rune extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-04-24Madrid MastersR64clayHolger Rune6-1 4-6 7-6(9)
2022-09-19MetzQFhardAlexander Bublik6-3 5-7 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Rune H.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Bublik A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rune H.Bublik A.
47
Serve
65
58
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Rune H.Bublik A.
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
77%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
47%
Service points won·Even
66%
65%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.1
11.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.9
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (120 vs 140). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rune H.Bublik A.
Clutch Rating·Even
91
88
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Clear edge
84
67
Deciding sets·Even
98
99
Tiebreaks·Even
99
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rune H.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Bublik A.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1725
Surface ELO
6.3+112 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1889
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.8
Surface form
1.7
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
6.7
Minutes 14d
8.9
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.6
Country comfort
5.6
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rune H.Bublik A.
Freshness·
—
70

Bublik A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
14°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 92%
Final
Zverev A.[3]
Humbert U.[15]
6-26-2
Semi-finals
Humbert U.[15]
Khachanov K.
6-766-46-3
Zverev A.[3]
Rune H.[13]
6-37-64
Quarter-finals
Rune H.[13]
De Minaur A.[9]
6-44-67-5
Khachanov K.
Dimitrov G.[8]
6-26-3
Zverev A.[3]
Tsitsipas S.[10]
7-56-4
Humbert U.[15]
Thompson J.
6-27-64
R16
Humbert U.[15]
Alcaraz C.[2]
6-13-67-5
Rune H.[13]
Cazaux A.
3-66-36-4
De Minaur A.[9]
Draper J.
5-76-26-3
Zverev A.[3]
Fils A.
6-43-66-3
Tsitsipas S.[10]
Cerundolo F.
6-716-46-2
Dimitrov G.[8]
Rinderknech A.
6-24-67-65
Khachanov K.
Popyrin A.
7-656-4
Thompson J.
Mannarino A.
7-57-65
R32
Fils A.
Struff J.
6-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[10]
Tabilo A.
6-36-4
Thompson J.
Ruud C.[7]
7-633-66-4
Rinderknech A.
Michelsen A.
7-667-67
Draper J.
Fritz T.[5]
7-664-66-4
Zverev A.[3]
Griekspoor T.
7-626-3
Cerundolo F.
Rublev A.[6]
7-667-65
Dimitrov G.[8]
Etcheverry T.
6-796-37-5
Khachanov K.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-7126-16-4
De Minaur A.[9]
Kecmanovic M.
6-47-65
Mannarino A.
Bergs Z.
3-66-26-4
Humbert U.[15]
Giron M.
6-36-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Jarry N.
7-56-1
Popyrin A.
Medvedev D.[4]
6-42-67-64
Cazaux A.
Shelton B.
6-37-64
Rune H.[13]
Bublik A.
6-46-2
R64
De Minaur A.[9]
Navone M.
7-56-1
Struff J.
Musetti L.[16]
6-46-2
Etcheverry T.
Zhang Z.
6-37-66
Khachanov K.
Oconnell C.
6-43-67-66
Giron M.
Shang J.
7-667-66
Rinderknech A.
Machac T.
6-735-3
Michelsen A.
Hurkacz H.[12]
6-16-3
Tabilo A.
Borges N.
3-67-656-3
Draper J.
Lehecka J.
7-56-2
Fils A.
Cilic M.
7-656-4
Kecmanovic M.
Baez S.
6-46-767-5
Griekspoor T.
Darderi L.
6-36-4
Bublik A.
Fognini F.
7-57-5
Rune H.[13]
Arnaldi M.
6-46-4
Thompson J.
Martinez P.
6-46-4
Bergs Z.
Gasquet R.
6-36-4
Mannarino A.
Paul T.[11]
6-37-5
Humbert U.[15]
Nakashima B.
6-34-66-4
Jarry N.
Sonego L.
7-646-3
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Tiafoe F.[14]
6-757-646-3
Cerundolo F.
Halys Q.
7-656-3
Shelton B.
Moutet C.
6-36-786-3
Tsitsipas S.[10]
Carballes Baena R.
4-66-36-3
Popyrin A.
Berrettini M.
7-57-62