Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander ZverevVienna Quarter-final

Vienna · ATP · Quarter-final
#14ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 21 October 2024
hard
#2ATP
2100ELO
2042Hard ELO
$6.5MYTD
$66MCAREER
29 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWW
Musetti L.
2-6 7-6 6-4
Zverev A.
Musetti L.
27762
Zverev A.
66541

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Alexander Zverev 2-6 7-6 6-4 in the Vienna quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexander Zverev came in ranked #2, defending last year's quarter-final. Lorenzo Musetti extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20ViennaSFhardAlexander Zverev6-4 7-5
2025-05-07Rome MastersQFclayLorenzo Musetti7-6(1) 6-4
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsQFclayLorenzo Musetti7-5 7-5
2022-05-02Madrid MastersR16clayAlexander Zverev6-3 1-0 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Musetti L.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Zverev A.

Zverev A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Musetti L.Zverev A.
54
Serve
71
62
Return
42

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Even
65%
69%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.1
8.5
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (155 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
94
Break points saved·Even
98
100
Break points won·Slight edge
82
90
Deciding sets·Even
99
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1804
Surface ELO
6.7+238 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1869
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 2100
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.4
Surface form
6.6
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
39

Zverev A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 148 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
13°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 80%