Alex De Minaur vs Roberto Carballes BaenaAntwerp Round of 16

Antwerp · ATP · Round of 16
#5ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 14 October 2024
hard
#165ATP
1632ELO
1592Hard ELO
$188kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWWW
De Minaur A.
2-6 6-4 6-2
Carballes Baena R.
De Minaur A.
2662
Carballes Baena R.
6421

Alex De Minaur defeated Roberto Carballes Baena 2-6 6-4 6-2 in the Antwerp round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Alex De Minaur extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonR128grassAlex De Minaur6-2 6-2 7-6(2)
2024-05-06Rome MastersR64clayAlex De Minaur6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carballes Baena R.

Carballes Baena R.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve advantage — De Minaur A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

De Minaur A.Carballes Baena R.
48
Serve
80
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Even
62%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
3.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (166 vs 135). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
95
61
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
93
Break points won·Dominant
97
58
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
64
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
50

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 105 days (−1.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.5+343 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.5Hard Elo 1592
9.5Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1632
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.8
Surface form
5.0
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.5
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
7.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
80
92

De Minaur A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Carballes Baena R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 12 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
8°CDrizzle
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 87%