Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno BustaBeijing Round of 32

Beijing · ATP · Round of 32
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 26 September 2024
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Rublev A.
6-0 4-6 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Rublev A.
6462
Carreno Busta P.
0641

Andrey Rublev defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-0 4-6 6-4 in the Beijing round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's round of 16. Andrey Rublev extended the head-to-head to 4–0.

Key context

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2019-07-22HamburgSFclayAndrey Rublev4-6 7-5 6-1
2015-05-10Rome MastersQ1clayAndrey Rublev6-4 6-7(6) 6-3
2015-03-25Miami MastersR128hardAndrey Rublev1-6 6-1 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Rublev A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rublev A.Carreno Busta P.
55
Serve
21
52
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
67%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.9
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (150 vs 115). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
78
Break points saved·Even
100
97
Break points won·Slight edge
72
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
80
Tiebreaks·Even
92
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 45 days (−0.7)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+105 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1744
6.6Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.6
Surface form
8.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.4
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
5.7
Country comfort
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
93
89

Rublev A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 59%