Andrey Rublev vs Matteo ArnaldiCanada Masters Semi-final

Canada Masters · ATP · Semi-final
#16ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 August 2024
hard
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Rublev A.
6-4 6-2
Arnaldi M.
Rublev A.
662
Arnaldi M.
420

Andrey Rublev defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-4 6-2 in the Canada Masters semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #16, defending last year's round of 32. Andrey Rublev extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128hardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-2 6-3
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR64hardMatteo Arnaldi6-4 7-5
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR32clayMatteo Arnaldi7-6(6) 6-2 6-4
2023-10-23ViennaR16hardAndrey Rublev7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Rublev A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Serve advantage — Rublev A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rublev A.Arnaldi M.
55
Serve
23
52
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.9
6.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.7
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (150 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
78
Break points saved·Even
100
97
Break points won·Clear edge
72
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
97
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+116 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1732
6.9Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1830
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.6
Surface form
5.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.7
Minutes 14d
8.6
4.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
95
96

Rublev A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 72%
Semi-finals
Rublev A.[5]
Arnaldi M.
6-46-2
Popyrin A.
Korda S.
7-606-3