Andrey Rublev vs Matteo ArnaldiVienna Round of 16

Vienna · ATP · Round of 16
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 October 2023
hard
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Rublev A.
7-5 6-3
Arnaldi M.
Rublev A.
762
Arnaldi M.
530

Andrey Rublev defeated Matteo Arnaldi 7-5 6-3 in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #13, defending last year's round of 16. Andrey Rublev extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Andrey Rublev closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128hardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-2 6-3
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR64hardMatteo Arnaldi6-4 7-5
2024-08-05Canada MastersSFhardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-2
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR32clayMatteo Arnaldi7-6(6) 6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Rublev A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Serve advantage — Rublev A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rublev A.Arnaldi M.
55
Serve
23
52
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Even
65%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.9
5.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 194). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
78
Break points saved·Even
100
97
Break points won·Clear edge
72
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
97
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+116 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1732
6.9Overall Elo 1902
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.7
Surface form
7.0
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
93
94

Rublev A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
16°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 66%