Francisco Cerundolo vs Lorenzo MusettiUmag Final

Umag · ATP · Final
#22ATP
1931ELO
1868Clay ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 22 July 2024
clay
#14ATP
1869ELO
1853Clay ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Cerundolo F.
2-6 6-4 7-6
Musetti L.
Cerundolo F.
26772
Musetti L.
64651

Francisco Cerundolo defeated Lorenzo Musetti 2-6 6-4 7-6 in the Umag final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Lorenzo Musetti came in ranked #14, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Francisco Cerundolo narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-10Rome MastersR32clayLorenzo Musetti7-6 6-4
2024-11-21Davis Cup Finals QF: ITA vs ARGRRhardFrancisco Cerundolo6-4 6-1
2022-07-18HamburgSFclayLorenzo Musetti6-3 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Cerundolo F.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Musetti L.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Cerundolo F.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Cerundolo F.Musetti L.
26
Serve
34
99
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Even
62%
60%
Aces / match·Even
3.5
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (153 vs 155). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
88
89
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
86
82
Deciding sets·Slight edge
94
99
Tiebreaks·Even
93
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
4.0+16 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
6.0Clay Elo 1853
4.3Overall Elo 1931
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1869
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.1
Surface form
6.5
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.2
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
98

Cerundolo F.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast