Daria Kasatkina vs Jessica PegulaCharleston Semi-final

Charleston · WTA · Semi-final
#63WTA
1795ELO
1770Clay ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 1 April 2024
clay
#3WTA
2097ELO
1941Clay ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Kasatkina D.
6-4 4-6 7-6
Pegula J.
Kasatkina D.
64772
Pegula J.
46651

Daria Kasatkina defeated Jessica Pegula 6-4 4-6 7-6 in the Charleston semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's semi-final. Daria Kasatkina claimed a first win over Jessica Pegula in four meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-09DohaR16hardJessica Pegula6-3 7-5
2023-09-25TokyoQFhardJessica Pegula6-1 6-0
2021-05-10RomeR64clayJessica Pegula7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Kasatkina D.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Kasatkina D.Pegula J.
Serve
67
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.7
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.4
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (120 vs 151). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
96
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
96
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
100
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
2.9Clay Elo 1770
Surface ELO
7.1+172 Clay Elo edge
1.4Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 2097
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.9
Surface form
6.6
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.5
Minutes 14d
6.2
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
5.5
Country comfort
7.9
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
79

Kasatkina D.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Pegula J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 70%