Jessica Pegula vs Daria KasatkinaTokyo Quarter-final

Tokyo · WTA · Quarter-final
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 25 September 2023
hard
#65WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Pegula J.
6-1 6-0
Kasatkina D.
Pegula J.
662
Kasatkina D.
100

Jessica Pegula defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-0 in the Tokyo quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Jessica Pegula extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-09DohaR16hardJessica Pegula6-3 7-5
2024-04-01CharlestonSFclayDaria Kasatkina6-4 4-6 7-6(5)
2021-05-10RomeR64clayJessica Pegula7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Kasatkina D.
68
Serve
0
73
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Even
58%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 184). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
96
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
96
80
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Slight edge
100
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
8.7+301 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.3Hard Elo 1757
8.6Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
1.4Overall Elo 1795
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.9
Surface form
6.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
89

Pegula J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 49%