Jasmine Paolini vs Leylah FernandezDubai Round of 32

Dubai · WTA · Round of 32
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 19 February 2024
hard
#24WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Paolini J.
6-3 6-4
Fernandez L.
Paolini J.
662
Fernandez L.
340

Jasmine Paolini defeated Leylah Fernandez 6-3 6-4 in the Dubai round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, defending last year's round of 64. Jasmine Paolini narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-22Bad HomburgR16grassJasmine Paolini7-6(8) 7-6(6)
2023-11-07BJK Cup FinalsFhardLeylah Fernandez6-2 6-3
2021-01-06Abu DhabiR64hardLeylah Fernandez6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Fernandez L.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Fernandez L.
31
Serve
60
55
Return
27

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (138 vs 132). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
87
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
95
Break points won·Even
99
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
97
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
93
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+88 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1785
5.8Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1805
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.3
Surface form
7.0
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
5.7
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
72
98

Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Fernandez L.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 29 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw