Leylah Fernandez vs Jasmine PaoliniBJK Cup Finals Final

BJK Cup Finals · WTA · Final
#24WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 7 November 2023
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Fernandez L.
6-2 6-3
Paolini J.
Fernandez L.
662
Paolini J.
230

Leylah Fernandez defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-3 in the BJK Cup Finals final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Leylah Fernandez narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-22Bad HomburgR16grassJasmine Paolini7-6(8) 7-6(6)
2024-02-19DubaiR32hardJasmine Paolini6-3 6-4
2021-01-06Abu DhabiR64hardLeylah Fernandez6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Fernandez L.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fernandez L.Paolini J.
60
Serve
31
27
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
59%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (192 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
87
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
95
87
Break points won·Even
95
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 22 days (−0.3)
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 22 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1785
Surface ELO
5.9+88 Hard Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1805
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1905
10.0
H2H
0.0
8.8
Surface form
7.6
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
98
76

Fernandez L.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast