Nicolas Jarry vs Matteo ArnaldiAdelaide Round of 16

Adelaide · ATP · Round of 16
#211ATP
1648ELO
1574Hard ELO
$70kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
30 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 8 January 2024
hard
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Jarry N.
6-7 7-6 6-4
Arnaldi M.
Jarry N.
657962
Arnaldi M.
776741

Nicolas Jarry defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-7 7-6 6-4 in the Adelaide round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35. Nicolas Jarry extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-05-06Rome MastersR64clayNicolas Jarry6-2 7-6(6)
2023-09-27BeijingR16hardNicolas Jarry6-7(4) 7-6(4) 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Jarry N.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Jarry N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Jarry N.Arnaldi M.
Serve
23
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
65%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.7
6.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
48
78
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Dominant
4
51
Deciding sets·Dominant
57
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1574
Surface ELO
6.4+159 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1648
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1830
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.1
Surface form
6.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.4
Minutes 14d
5.7
7.0
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
95

Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 62%