Nicolas Jarry vs Matteo ArnaldiBeijing Round of 16

Beijing · ATP · Round of 16
#211ATP
1648ELO
1574Hard ELO
$70kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
30 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 27 September 2023
hard
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Jarry N.
6-7 7-6 6-3
Arnaldi M.
Jarry N.
647762
Arnaldi M.
776431

Nicolas Jarry defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-7 7-6 6-3 in the Beijing round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35. Nicolas Jarry extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-05-06Rome MastersR64clayNicolas Jarry6-2 7-6(6)
2024-01-08AdelaideR16hardNicolas Jarry6-7(5) 7-6(7) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Jarry N.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Jarry N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Jarry N.Arnaldi M.
Serve
23
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.5
5.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (154 vs 194). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
48
78
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Dominant
4
51
Deciding sets·Dominant
57
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1574
Surface ELO
6.4+159 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1648
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.9
Surface form
5.1
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.1
7.0
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
4.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
95

Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 30%