Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Elena RybakinaAdelaide Quarter-final

Adelaide · WTA · Quarter-final
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$761kYTD
$10MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 8 January 2024
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Alexandrova E.
6-3 6-3
Rybakina E.
Alexandrova E.
662
Rybakina E.
330

Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Elena Rybakina 6-3 6-3 in the Adelaide quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 3–2. Ekaterina Alexandrova narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina6-4 6-4
2025-10-13NingboFhardElena Rybakina3-6 6-0 6-2
2020-09-14RomeR64clayElena Rybakina6-0 6-4
2020-08-24CincinnatiR64hardEkaterina Alexandrova7-5 7-6(6)
2020-01-06ShenzhenFhardEkaterina Alexandrova6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Alexandrova E.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Alexandrova E.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alexandrova E.Rybakina E.
52
Serve
100
42
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
64%
Return points won·Even
43%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
6.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.7
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (137 vs 154). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
65
92
Break points saved·Even
94
98
Break points won·Even
98
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
29
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
0.9Hard Elo 1800
Surface ELO
9.1+310 Hard Elo edge
1.0Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
9.0Overall Elo 2122
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.9
Surface form
7.7
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
89

Alexandrova E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Rybakina E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 62%