Leylah Fernandez vs Katerina SiniakovaHong Kong Final

Hong Kong · WTA · Final
#25WTA
1805ELO
1785Hard ELO
$787kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 168 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 9 October 2023
hard
#34WTA
1846ELO
1807Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$17MCAREER
30 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLWL
Fernandez L.
3-6 6-4 6-4
Siniakova K.
Fernandez L.
3662
Siniakova K.
6441

Leylah Fernandez defeated Katerina Siniakova 3-6 6-4 6-4 in the Hong Kong final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Katerina Siniakova came in leading the head-to-head 2–1, but Leylah Fernandez had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Leylah Fernandez narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-04Indian WellsR64hardKaterina Siniakova5-7 6-4 7-6(1)
2023-10-16NanchangSFhardKaterina Siniakova7-5 6-4
2022-05-23Roland GarrosR64clayLeylah Fernandez6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Fernandez L.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Siniakova K.

Siniakova K.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Fernandez L.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Fernandez L.Siniakova K.
60
Serve
21
27
Return
64

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
45%
Service points won·Even
59%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.3
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (192 vs 176). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
87
62
Break points saved·Clear edge
95
75
Break points won·Even
95
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
90
46
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1Hard Elo 1785
Surface ELO
4.9+22 Hard Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1805
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1846
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.7
Surface form
3.2
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.3
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
98

Fernandez L.: 15 days rest · Siniakova K.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast