Liudmila Samsonova vs Aryna SabalenkaMontreal Round of 16

Montreal · WTA · Round of 16
#41WTA
1775ELO
1723Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 August 2023
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Samsonova L.
7-6 4-6 6-3
Sabalenka A.
Samsonova L.
77462
Sabalenka A.
62631

Liudmila Samsonova defeated Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 4-6 6-3 in the Montreal round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–1, but Liudmila Samsonova had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Liudmila Samsonova narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

14
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-06WuhanR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2025-03-05Indian WellsQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-3
2024-08-12CincinnatiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2023-01-02Adelaide 1R16hardAryna Sabalenka7-6(8) 7-6(3)
2022-10-17Guadalajara 2R32hardLiudmila Samsonova6-4 2-6 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Samsonova L.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Samsonova L.Sabalenka A.
38
Serve
96
5
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
42%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
63%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.2
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (174 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
69
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
98
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
55
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1723
Surface ELO
10.0+478 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1775
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2220
4.6
H2H
5.4
6.1
Surface form
7.9
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.8
Minutes 14d
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
83
86

Samsonova L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 68%

Draw