Liudmila Samsonova vs Aryna SabalenkaGuadalajara 2 Round of 32

Guadalajara 2 · WTA · Round of 32
#69WTA
1775ELO
1723Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 October 2022
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Samsonova L.
6-4 2-6 6-2
Sabalenka A.
Samsonova L.
6262
Sabalenka A.
4621

Liudmila Samsonova defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 2-6 6-2 in the Guadalajara 2 round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–1. Liudmila Samsonova narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

14
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-06WuhanR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2025-03-05Indian WellsQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-3
2024-08-12CincinnatiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2023-08-07MontrealR16hardLiudmila Samsonova7-6(2) 4-6 6-3
2023-01-02Adelaide 1R16hardAryna Sabalenka7-6(8) 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Samsonova L.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Samsonova L.Sabalenka A.
38
Serve
96
5
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
63%
Aces / match·Even
4.9
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
69
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
98
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
55
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1723
Surface ELO
10.0+478 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1775
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2220
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.5
Surface form
6.0
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.4
Minutes 14d
7.2
7.0
3-set count
4.0
6.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
2.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
90

Samsonova L.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast

Draw