Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila SamsonovaAdelaide 1 Round of 16

Adelaide 1 · WTA · Round of 16
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 January 2023
hard
#41WTA
1775ELO
1723Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLLLL
Sabalenka A.
7-6 7-6
Samsonova L.
Sabalenka A.
710772
Samsonova L.
68630

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Liudmila Samsonova 7-6 7-6 in the Adelaide 1 round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 3–2, defending last year's round of 16. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

32
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-06WuhanR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2025-03-05Indian WellsQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-3
2024-08-12CincinnatiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-2
2023-08-07MontrealR16hardLiudmila Samsonova7-6(2) 4-6 6-3
2022-10-17Guadalajara 2R32hardLiudmila Samsonova6-4 2-6 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Samsonova L.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Samsonova L.
96
Serve
38
39
Return
5

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
57%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 174). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
98
69
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
93
Break points won·Slight edge
100
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
61
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
55

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 77 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
10.0+478 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1723
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1775
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.7
Surface form
7.5
Win streak
0.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
86
83

Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Samsonova L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast