Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik SinnerRotterdam Final

Rotterdam · ATP · Final
#9ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 February 2023
hard
#1ATP
2320ELO
2263Hard ELO
$6.9MYTD
$65MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWWW
Medvedev D.
5-7 6-2 6-2
Sinner J.
Medvedev D.
5662
Sinner J.
7221

Daniil Medvedev defeated Jannik Sinner 5-7 6-2 6-2 in the Rotterdam final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jannik Sinner came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 10–6. Daniil Medvedev narrowed the head-to-head to 10–7.

Key context

Head to head

610
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-16Rome MastersSFclayJannik Sinner6-2 5-7 6-4
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersFhardJannik Sinner7-6(6) 7-6(4)
2024-11-11Tour FinalsRRhardJannik Sinner6-3 6-4
2024-10-02Shanghai MastersQFhardJannik Sinner6-1 6-4
2024-08-26US OpenQFhardJannik Sinner6-2 1-6 6-1 6-4
2024-07-01WimbledonQFgrassDaniil Medvedev6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4) 2-6 6-3
2024-03-18Miami MastersSFhardJannik Sinner6-1 6-2
2024-01-15Australian OpenFhardJannik Sinner3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3
2023-11-13Tour FinalsSFhardJannik Sinner6-3 6-7(4) 6-1
2023-10-23ViennaFhardJannik Sinner7-6(7) 4-6 6-3
2023-09-27BeijingFhardJannik Sinner7-6(2) 7-6(2)
2023-03-20Miami MastersFhardDaniil Medvedev7-5 6-3
2022-10-24ViennaQFhardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-2
2021-11-15Tour FinalsRRhardDaniil Medvedev6-0 6-7(5) 7-6(8)
2021-03-08MarseilleQFhardDaniil Medvedev6-2 6-4
2020-02-17MarseilleR16hardDaniil Medvedev1-6 6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Medvedev D.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Sinner J.

Sinner J.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Serve advantage — Sinner J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Medvedev D.Sinner J.
47
Serve
100
94
Return
100

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
79%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
58%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
71%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
62%
74%
Aces / match·Even
7.6
7.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (198 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
96
100
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
99
100
Tiebreaks·Even
99
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
1.3Hard Elo 1962
Surface ELO
8.7+301 Hard Elo edge
0.9Overall Elo 1977
ELO gap
9.1Overall Elo 2320
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.6
Surface form
9.2
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.2
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
85
59

Medvedev D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sinner J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
7°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 89%