Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jesper De JongPiracicaba CH Round of 16

Piracicaba CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#58ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 16 January 2023
clay
#73ATP
1711ELO
1696Clay ELO
$612kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWWL
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-6 6-1
De Jong J.
Ugo Carabelli C.
7762
De Jong J.
6010

Camilo Ugo Carabelli defeated Jesper De Jong 7-6 6-1 in the Piracicaba CH round of 16 on clay. The result followed the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in ranked #58. Camilo Ugo Carabelli claimed a first win over Jesper De Jong in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Camilo Ugo Carabelli came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-14BastadSFclayJesper De Jong6-3 7-6(3)
2024-01-15Australian OpenQ3hardJesper De Jong7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(7)

Serve vs return

This season
Ugo Carabelli C.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs De Jong J.

De Jong J.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Ugo Carabelli C.De Jong J.
24
Serve
49
36
Return
32

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.7
5.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
56
Break points saved·Even
90
90
Break points won·Dominant
62
37
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
69
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
72
57

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+45 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1696
6.5Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1711
3.3
H2H
6.7
4.1
Surface form
7.1
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.2
Minutes 14d
2.3
3-set count
0.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
98
92

Ugo Carabelli C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · De Jong J.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast