Jesper De Jong vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Australian Open Qualifying Final

Australian Open · ATP · Qualifying Final
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#73ATP
1711ELO
1607Hard ELO
$612kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 15 January 2024
hard
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ARG31
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#58ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
De Jong J.
7-6 3-6 7-6
Ugo Carabelli C.
De Jong J.
773792
Ugo Carabelli C.
636671

Jesper De Jong defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 7-6 3-6 7-6 in the Australian Open qualifying final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in ranked #58. Jesper De Jong extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Jesper De Jong closed it out in three sets, 7–6 3–6 7–6.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-14BastadSFclayJesper De Jong6-3 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
De Jong J.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs De Jong J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

De Jong J.Ugo Carabelli C.
23
Serve
0
17
Return
5

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
De Jong J.Ugo Carabelli C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
48%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.2
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.2
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (158 vs 176). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
De Jong J.Ugo Carabelli C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
56
78
Break points saved·Even
90
90
Break points won·Dominant
37
62
Deciding sets·Dominant
69
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
57
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Ugo Carabelli C.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1607
Surface ELO
5.9+35 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1711
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
4.5
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.8
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
De Jong J.Ugo Carabelli C.
Freshness·Slight edge
92
98

De Jong J.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 61%
Q3
Jasika O.
Shelbayh A.
2-66-16-2
Nagal S.[28]
Molcan A.[14]
6-46-4
Prizmic D.
Dougaz A.
6-36-4
Harris L.[30]
Gaston H.[4]
6-06-2
Grenier H.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
5-76-47-64
Kovacevic A.[7]
Mochizuki S.[27]
1-66-26-2
Klein L.
Napolitano S.
7-627-63
Mensik J.
Mayot H.
6-37-62
Zeppieri G.[26]
Ritschard A.
6-36-3
Valkusz M.
Vavassori A.
6-16-4
Atmane T.
Nava E.
7-657-63
Kopriva V.[24]
Crawford O.
6-46-4
De Jong J.
Ugo Carabelli C.[31]
7-633-67-67
Cobolli F.[2]
Rodriguez Taverna S.
6-46-2
Goffin D.[8]
Diallo G.[29]
3-66-36-2
Sweeny D.
Bergs Z.[22]
5-77-52-0
Q2
Mochizuki S.[27]
Schoolkate T.
6-26-4
Nava E.
Bellucci M.
6-46-3
Bergs Z.[22]
De Loore J.
7-626-0
De Jong J.
Meligeni Alves F.
7-656-1
Kovacevic A.[7]
Sachko V.
7-657-64
Cobolli F.[2]
Hassan B.
6-46-3
Nagal S.[28]
Winter E.
6-36-2
Ritschard A.
Marie J.
6-736-36-2
Crawford O.
Passaro F.
6-46-776-4
Dougaz A.
Peniston R.
6-36-2
Sweeny D.
Nardi L.[13]
7-626-2
Rodriguez Taverna S.
Piros Z.[20]
6-23-67-68
Ugo Carabelli C.[31]
Bonadio R.
6-16-4
Kopriva V.[24]
Roca Batalla O.
6-36-3
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Huesler M.
7-633-67-5
Vavassori A.
Coppejans K.
6-16-3
Zeppieri G.[26]
Dzumhur D.
6-36-2
Molcan A.[14]
Millman J.
6-46-3
Harris L.[30]
Jacquet K.
7-56-4
Gaston H.[4]
Zhukayev B.
7-636-3
Goffin D.[8]
Harris B.
3-66-36-2
Atmane T.
Fatic N.
6-33-67-5
Napolitano S.
Molleker R.
1-66-46-2
Mensik J.
Gaio F.
6-43-66-3
Klein L.
Kudla D.
6-36-726-4
Shelbayh A.
Medjedovic H.[10]
6-727-656-2
Prizmic D.
Ajdukovic D.
7-56-0
Grenier H.
Cressy M.[19]
4-66-26-3
Diallo G.[29]
Herbert P.
4-66-47-68
Valkusz M.
Comesana F.[17]
2-66-46-2
Jasika O.
Svajda Z.[32]
7-54-66-2
Mayot H.
Dellien H.[9]
6-06-3
Q1
Svajda Z.[32]
Blockx A.
4-66-36-4
Mochizuki S.[27]
Moreno De Alboran N.
3-66-06-2
Millman J.
Giannessi A.
6-36-4
Kovacevic A.[7]
Onclin G.
6-36-797-67
Passaro F.
Martinez P.[6]
6-36-2
Hassan B.
Choinski J.
6-46-0
Gaston H.[4]
Yunchaokete B.
7-56-0
Winter E.
Agamenone F.
6-36-4
Coppejans K.
Tirante T.[16]
6-717-666-2
Valkusz M.
Wu T.
7-606-4
Harris L.[30]
Rincon D.
6-26-2
Ajdukovic D.
Blanchet U.
6-46-2
Cressy M.[19]
Hsu Y.
6-26-1
De Loore J.
Tu L.
7-6117-64
Huesler M.
Misolic F.
3-66-46-3
Sweeny D.
Gigante M.
7-637-5
Prizmic D.
Navone M.[18]
5-76-36-2
Herbert P.
Burruchaga R.
7-656-756-3
Molcan A.[14]
Brouwer G.
6-46-4
Schoolkate T.
Shimabukuro S.
5-76-46-3
Dzumhur D.
Skatov T.
4-66-36-3
De Jong J.
Brancaccio R.
6-16-2
Mensik J.
Nakashima B.[25]
6-47-64
Piros Z.[20]
Pellegrino A.
6-756-26-1
Goffin D.[8]
Travaglia S.
6-47-5
Kudla D.
Schwartzman D.[11]
7-676-4
Mayot H.
Collarini A.
7-656-3
Medjedovic H.[10]
Cecchinato M.
6-16-1
Cobolli F.[2]
Jin J.
6-26-2
Bonadio R.
Marinkov P.
7-57-62
Diallo G.[29]
Llamas Ruiz P.
7-636-1
Grenier H.
Lajal M.
6-46-2
Shelbayh A.
Droguet T.
6-26-4
Comesana F.[17]
Shimizu Y.
7-626-2
Molleker R.
Gakhov I.
6-46-4
Jacquet K.
Couacaud E.
6-32-66-2
Zeppieri G.[26]
Cuevas P.
6-06-1
Crawford O.
Ivashka I.
6-33-66-1
Harris B.
Kuzmanov D.
0-66-26-2
Sachko V.
Yevseyev D.
6-27-5
Nagal S.[28]
Blancaneaux G.
6-37-5
Dougaz A.
Bagnis F.
7-646-3
Napolitano S.
Albot R.[23]
7-57-5
Ugo Carabelli C.[31]
Jones H.
6-03-66-2
Ritschard A.
Tabur C.
7-656-3
Vavassori A.
Virtanen O.
6-06-3
Jasika O.
Svrcina D.
6-31-66-2
Nardi L.[13]
Maestrelli F.
7-56-4
Atmane T.
Cerundolo J.[15]
4-66-46-1
Rodriguez Taverna S.
Escoffier A.
6-47-66
Zhukayev B.
Kicker N.
6-16-4
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Barrios Vera T.[3]
6-37-68
Dellien H.[9]
Oliveira G.
6-46-2
Meligeni Alves F.
Mmoh M.[5]
6-16-3
Kopriva V.[24]
Hemery C.
6-36-3
Klein L.
Trungelliti M.
6-33-66-3
Bergs Z.[22]
Kolar Z.
6-26-2
Marie J.
Paire B.[12]
7-666-4
Roca Batalla O.
Sekulic P.
7-56-1
Nava E.
Darderi L.[21]
7-636-4
Fatic N.
Marchenko I.
6-47-65
Bellucci M.
Kovalik J.
6-14-67-65
Peniston R.
Ymer E.
6-14-67-67
Gaio F.
Lokoli L.
4-66-43-2