Jesper De Jong vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Tigre 2 CH Round of 16

Tigre 2 CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Jesper De Jong
NED
Jesper De Jong
#73ATP
1711ELO
1696Clay ELO
$612kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 January 2023
clay
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ARG1
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#58ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
De Jong J.
6-4 6-1
Ugo Carabelli C.
De Jong J.
662
Ugo Carabelli C.
410

Jesper De Jong defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-4 6-1 in the Tigre 2 CH round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in ranked #58, but Jesper De Jong had been the form player, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay. Jesper De Jong extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-14BastadSFclayJesper De Jong6-3 7-6(3)
2024-01-15Australian OpenQ3hardJesper De Jong7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(7)

Serve vs return

This season
De Jong J.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs De Jong J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

De Jong J.Ugo Carabelli C.
49
Serve
24
32
Return
36

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
De Jong J.Ugo Carabelli C.
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.7
2.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
De Jong J.Ugo Carabelli C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
56
78
Break points saved·Even
90
90
Break points won·Dominant
37
62
Deciding sets·Dominant
69
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
57
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Jong J.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Ugo Carabelli C.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
3.6Clay Elo 1696
Surface ELO
6.4+45 Clay Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1711
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1759
4.6
H2H
5.4
5.1
Surface form
4.4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.9
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
De Jong J.Ugo Carabelli C.
Freshness·Clear edge
78
100

De Jong J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Final
Cerundolo J.[2]
De Jong J.
6-32-66-2
Semi-finals
Cerundolo J.[2]
Collarini A.[4]
6-36-1
De Jong J.
Giannessi A.[7]
6-45-76-1
Quarter-finals
Cerundolo J.[2]
Torres J.[5]
6-27-62
Collarini A.[4]
Atmane T.
6-46-1
Giannessi A.[7]
Navone M.[3]
6-767-56-1
De Jong J.
Villanueva G.
6-27-60
R16
Villanueva G.
Sanchez Jover C.
6-46-2
Collarini A.[4]
Echargui M.
7-667-63
De Jong J.
Ugo Carabelli C.[1]
6-46-1
Torres J.[5]
Farjat T.
6-46-1
Atmane T.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-36-2
Cerundolo J.[2]
Lavagno E.
7-54-66-2
Giannessi A.[7]
Boscardin Dias P.
6-26-2
Navone M.[3]
Stodder T.
6-27-5
R32
Reis Da Silva J.
Roca Batalla O.[8]
6-27-5
Stodder T.
Weis A.
7-53-0
Ugo Carabelli C.[1]
Seyboth Wild T.
7-644-0
Giannessi A.[7]
Londero J.
3-4
Cerundolo J.[2]
Dutra Da Silva D.
6-26-1
Collarini A.[4]
Prihodko O.
6-16-4
Sanchez Jover C.
Casanova H.[6]
6-766-47-5
Farjat T.
Comesana F.
6-36-4
Echargui M.
Droguet T.
4-66-16-0
Lavagno E.
Chung Y.
6-36-1
Torres J.[5]
Dellien Velasco M.
7-56-4
Atmane T.
Bertola R.
4-67-56-1
Boscardin Dias P.
Briand J.
5-76-26-2
Navone M.[3]
Aboian V.
6-36-2
Villanueva G.
Zhu E.
6-12-66-2
De Jong J.
Franco Descotte M.
6-26-2