Jan Lennard Struff vs Matteo ArnaldiBergamo CH Quarter-final

Bergamo CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#41ATP
1694ELO
1634Hard ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 31 October 2022
hard
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Struff J.
4-6 6-1 6-4
Arnaldi M.
Struff J.
4662
Arnaldi M.
6141

Jan Lennard Struff defeated Matteo Arnaldi 4-6 6-1 6-4 in the Bergamo CH quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34, defending last year's round of 32. Jan Lennard Struff extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-09StuttgartR32grassJan Lennard Struff6-4 6-4
2023-10-02Shanghai MastersR64hardMatteo Arnaldi6-3 3-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Struff J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Struff J.

Serve advantage — Struff J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Struff J.Arnaldi M.
36
Serve
23
40
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.8
5.8
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
61
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
21
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
68
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
94
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1634
Surface ELO
5.6+98 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1694
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.1
Surface form
5.2
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.4
Minutes 14d
7.8
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
64
96

Struff J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast