Jan Lennard Struff vs Matteo ArnaldiStuttgart Round of 32

Stuttgart · ATP · Round of 32
#74ATP
1694ELO
1623Grass ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 June 2025
grass
#35ATP
1830ELO
1630Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Struff J.
6-4 6-4
Arnaldi M.
Struff J.
662
Arnaldi M.
440

Jan Lennard Struff defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-4 6-4 in the Stuttgart round of 32 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35, leading the head-to-head 1–0, but Jan Lennard Struff had been the form player, winning 3 of their last 4 on grass. Jan Lennard Struff claimed a first win over Matteo Arnaldi in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Jan Lennard Struff edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-10-02Shanghai MastersR64hardMatteo Arnaldi6-3 3-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Struff J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Struff J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.4
5.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.2
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 60). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
61
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
21
51
Deciding sets·Clear edge
68
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
94
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.7Grass Elo 1623
Surface ELO
4.3+7 Grass Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1694
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
4.7
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
3-set count
4.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
59
95

Struff J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 87 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast