Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Aslan KaratsevDubai Round of 32

Dubai · ATP · Round of 32
#145ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 21 February 2022
hard
#1285ATP
32 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLLL
Mcdonald M.
7-5 6-3
Karatsev A.
Mcdonald M.
762
Karatsev A.
530

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Aslan Karatsev 7-5 6-3 in the Dubai round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aslan Karatsev came in leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending the title. Mackenzie Mcdonald narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-05-06Rome MastersR128clayAslan Karatsev4-6 6-3 6-4
2023-08-07Canada MastersR64hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-3 6-4
2022-01-17Australian OpenR64hardAslan Karatsev3-6 6-2 6-2 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Karatsev A.

Karatsev A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Karatsev A.
25
Serve
10
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Even
61%
61%
Aces / match·Even
4.7
5.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.3
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 158). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
56
43
Break points saved·Even
96
94
Break points won·Dominant
66
39
Deciding sets·Slight edge
45
37
Tiebreaks·Even
44
41

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.0
Surface form
5.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Minutes 14d
6.5
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
87

Mcdonald M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 27 km/hHumidity 63%