Frances Tiafoe vs Tommy PaulLexington CH Round of 32

Lexington CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#17ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 25 July 2016
hard
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Tiafoe F.
6-3 6-1
Paul T.
Tiafoe F.
662
Paul T.
310

Frances Tiafoe defeated Tommy Paul 6-3 6-1 in the Lexington CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in leading the head-to-head 4–1. Frances Tiafoe narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

14
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-30HoustonSFclayTommy Paul7-5 4-6 7-6(7)
2024-02-12Delray BeachSFhardTommy Paul6-2 6-2
2022-01-10Adelaide 2R32hardTommy Paul6-2 6-3
2021-11-08StockholmSFhardTommy Paul5-7 7-6(5) 6-4
2020-02-17Delray BeachR16hardFrances Tiafoe7-5 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Tiafoe F.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Tiafoe F.Paul T.
38
Serve
71
37
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
66%
65%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
64%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.0
6.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
83
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
57
87
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
98
Tiebreaks·Even
98
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
91

Tiafoe F.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Paul T.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast