Tommy Paul vs Frances TiafoeHouston Semi-final

Houston · ATP · Semi-final
#24ATP
1949ELO
1886Clay ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 30 March 2026
clay
#17ATP
1918ELO
1827Clay ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Paul T.
7-5 4-6 7-6
Tiafoe F.
Paul T.
74792
Tiafoe F.
56671

Tommy Paul defeated Frances Tiafoe 7-5 4-6 7-6 in the Houston semi-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's semi-final. Tommy Paul extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-12Delray BeachSFhardTommy Paul6-2 6-2
2022-01-10Adelaide 2R32hardTommy Paul6-2 6-3
2021-11-08StockholmSFhardTommy Paul5-7 7-6(5) 6-4
2020-02-17Delray BeachR16hardFrances Tiafoe7-5 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Tiafoe F.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Paul T.Tiafoe F.
34
Serve
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
53%
Service points won·Even
69%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Even
6.6
6.7
Double faults / match·Even
1.5
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
83
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
87
57
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
92
Tiebreaks·Even
96
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.7+58 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Clay Elo 1827
5.5Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1918
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.3
Surface form
6.5
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.9
Minutes 14d
5.5
0.0
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
79

Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Tiafoe F.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast