Upset Audit

WTA Tour Beijing 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of WTA Tour Beijing 2026 in Beijing, China, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Charaeva A.def.Rybakina E.

WTA Tour Beijing 2026 — Round of 643-6 6-4 6-3

Pre-match WP: Charaeva A. 6% · Rybakina E. 94%

94

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Bartunkova N.def.Sabalenka A.

WTA Tour Beijing 2026 — Round of 326-4 6-3

Pre-match WP: Bartunkova N. 14% · Sabalenka A. 86%

86

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Alexandrova E.def.Noskova L.

WTA Tour Beijing 2026 — Round of 166-2 6-2

Pre-match WP: Alexandrova E. 20% · Noskova L. 80%

80

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Mertens E.def.Gauff C.

WTA Tour Beijing 2026 — Round of 166-3 6-3

Pre-match WP: Mertens E. 21% · Gauff C. 79%

79

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Li A.def.Bencic B.

WTA Tour Beijing 2026 — Round of 326-4 6-3

Pre-match WP: Li A. 27% · Bencic B. 73%

73

Umpiry
Surprise Score

6

Charaeva A.def.Kartal S.

WTA Tour Beijing 2026 — Round of 326-4 6-1

Pre-match WP: Charaeva A. 28% · Kartal S. 72%

72

Umpiry
Surprise Score

7

Sasnovich A.def.Gibson T.

WTA Tour Beijing 2026 — Round of 1286-1 6-4

Pre-match WP: Sasnovich A. 30% · Gibson T. 70%

70

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.