Upset Audit

ATP Tour Shanghai Masters 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of ATP Tour Shanghai Masters 2026 in Shanghai, China, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Altmaier D.def.Rune H.

ATP Tour Shanghai Masters 2026 — Round of 1281-6 7-6(5) 6-4

Pre-match WP: Altmaier D. 14% · Rune H. 86%

86

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Zhou Y.def.Bellucci M.

ATP Tour Shanghai Masters 2026 — Round of 1286-4 3-6 7-6(4)

Pre-match WP: Zhou Y. 28% · Bellucci M. 72%

72

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Ugo Carabelli C.def.Simakin I.

ATP Tour Shanghai Masters 2026 — Round of 1282-6 6-2 7-5

Pre-match WP: Ugo Carabelli C. 29% · Simakin I. 71%

71

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.