Sakamoto Leads Matsuyama Field as Six Qualifiers Complete the Draw
The Challenger draw in Matsuyama is set with 32 players and no byes. Rei Sakamoto heads the seeds as world No. 122, and Umpiry's projection gives him an 18% title chance. Six players came through qualifying, including two-time qualifying winner Koki Matsuda, who leads that group into the main draw.
Umpiry Editorial · 2 min read
- Rei Sakamoto is the top seed at No. 122 in the official ranking and carries the highest pre-tournament title probability at 18%, according to Umpiry's projection.
- Six qualifiers reached the main draw after 17 qualifying matches, headed by Koki Matsuda and Hikaru Shiraishi, each with two qualifying wins.
- Jay Dylan Hara Friend, unseeded, rates as the second-highest title chance in the field at 8.13%, just ahead of Yu Hsiou Hsu's 6.35%.
A full 32-player draw with eight seeds
Matsuyama's draw is complete with all 32 slots filled and no byes handed out, meaning every entrant opens in the round of 32. Eight players carry seedings, led by Rei Sakamoto at No. 122 in the official ranking. Behind him sit Joel Schwaerzler (No. 169), Taro Daniel (No. 172), Keegan Smith (No. 189), David Jorda Sanchis (No. 195), Liam Broady (No. 215) and Rio Noguchi (No. 233), rounding out the seeded group from third through eighth.
Among the early-round pairings confirmed in the draw, Sakamoto opens against Renta Tokuda, Schwaerzler faces Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong, and lucky loser Masamichi Imamura draws Taro Daniel in the round of 32.
Opening matches to watch
- Rei Sakamoto vs Renta Tokuda · Round of 32
- Joel Schwaerzler vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong · Round of 32
- Masamichi Imamura vs Taro Daniel · Round of 32
Six through qualifying, two share the best run
Qualifying wrapped up with 17 matches producing six qualifiers for the main draw. Koki Matsuda and Hikaru Shiraishi each won two qualifying matches to punch their tickets, joined by Ryuki Matsuda, Takuya Kumasaka and Renta Tokuda, all likewise two-match qualifying winners. Shintaro Imai completed the group with a single qualifying win. The main draw was further filled out by lucky loser Masamichi Imamura, who entered after losing in qualifying when a main-draw spot opened up.
- Koki Matsuda
Q · 2 qualifying wins
- Hikaru Shiraishi
Q · 2 qualifying wins
- Ryuki Matsuda
Q · 2 qualifying wins
- Takuya Kumasaka
Q · 2 qualifying wins
- Renta Tokuda
Q · 2 qualifying wins
- Shintaro Imai
Q · 1 qualifying win
Sakamoto rated highest in the pre-tournament projection
Umpiry's pre-tournament projection gives Rei Sakamoto the highest title probability in the field at 18%, consistent with his status as the top seed. The next-highest figures belong to unseeded players: Jay Dylan Hara Friend at 8.13% and Yu Hsiou Hsu at 6.35%, both ahead of seeded names such as Liam Broady (5.35%) and Keegan Smith (4.32%) in the model's ordering.
Title chances
| Player | Title chance before the event |
|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | 18% |
| Jay Dylan Hara Friend | 8.1% |
| Yu Hsiou Hsu | 6.3% |
| Liam Broady | 5.3% |
| Keegan Smith | 4.3% |
Title chances are Umpiry's model before the first main-draw match. How the model works
Data and sources
Tournament draw · ATP rankings · How Umpiry's model works · Photo credits
Every figure comes from Umpiry's tennis data as of .
Drafted by an AI model from Umpiry data, checked automatically against our database and approved by an editor before publication. Editorial policy
