Stefano Travaglia vs Marvin Moeller — Helsinki Round of 32
Why
Surface+174 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Travaglia S.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1570Against the prediction · Travaglia S.
Recent run4-match win streakSupports Moeller M.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Travaglia S.
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
ELO1 725
Hard ELO1 655
Last 104–6
Age34
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $177K
ELO1 761
Hard ELO1 639
Last 107–3
Age27
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $198K2026 $42K
Stefano Travaglia faces Marvin Moeller in the Helsinki round of 32 on hard. Stefano Travaglia is the paper favourite — ranked #177, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage — but Marvin Moeller has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Marvin Moeller brings the better recent hard form (4 of 5).
Key context
- Freshness: Stefano Travaglia comes in with 12 days of rest and 20 games in 14d, vs Marvin Moeller's 1 and 124.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Marvin Moeller has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 48 vs 6).
- Surface form: Stefano Travaglia 2 of 5, Marvin Moeller 4 of 5 on hard recently — Marvin Moeller the sharper of late.
Common opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Evidence
Travaglia S.Moeller M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–67–3 (ahead)
Season win rate52% (32–29)70% (38–16) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17251761 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO1655 (ahead)1639
Serve vs returnLast 58 vs 53 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)69%
Return points won40%42% (ahead)
Aces / match5.8 (ahead)3.0
ClutchLast 58 vs 53 matches
Break points saved59%63% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Stefano Travaglia vs Marvin Moeller — Helsinki Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/moeller-vs-travaglia-helsinki-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).