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Shintaro Mochizuki vs Lorenzo Giustino — Helsinki Round of 32

HelsinkiR32HardMon 16 Nov · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Mochizuki S.
72%28%

Clear edge for Mochizuki S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mochizuki S.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Giustino L.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
SurfaceHard Elo 1425Informative
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1475Supports Mochizuki S.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 820
Hard ELO1 649
Last 104–6
Age23
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.1M2026 $675K
ELO1 694
Hard ELO1 562
Last 105–5
Age35
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $143K

Shintaro Mochizuki faces Lorenzo Giustino in the Helsinki round of 32 on hard. Shintaro Mochizuki is the paper favourite — ranked #128 — but Lorenzo Giustino arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on hard to Shintaro Mochizuki's 0 of 4.

Key context

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Mochizuki S. and Giustino L. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Mochizuki S. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Giustino L. 0–1 (0%).

1–0100%Mochizuki S. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–10%Giustino L. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–1Sets0–2
16–11Games8–13

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mochizuki S.Giustino L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–65–5 (ahead)
Season win rate41% (25–36)48% (30–33) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1820 (ahead)1694
Hard-court ELO1649 (ahead)1562
Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 61 matches
1st-serve points won69%69%
Return points won39% (ahead)38%
Aces / match3.24.1 (ahead)
ClutchLast 50 vs 61 matches
Break points saved58%58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast5°C · Drizzle
Wind43 km/h
Humidity86%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Mochizuki S.Giustino L.
5 — fresherDays since last match2
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
31 — fresherGames · 7 days64
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
48 — fresherGames · 14 days87
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Shintaro Mochizuki vs Lorenzo Giustino — Helsinki Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/giustino-vs-mochizuki-helsinki-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).