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Laura Samson vs Carolina Alves — Cundinamarca Open - Sopo Round of 32

Cundinamarca Open - SopoR32ClayTue 10 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Samson L.
67%33%

Clear edge for Samson L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Samson L.7.5/10
Dominant favourite
Alves C.4.2/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+419 Clay Elo edgeSupports Samson L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1690Supports Samson L.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on claySupports Samson L.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Alves C.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 706
Clay ELO1 680
Last 105–5
Age18
EarningsCareer $384K2026 $195K
ELO1 630
Clay ELO1 625
Last 106–4
Age30
EarningsCareer $465K2026 $26K

Laura Samson faces Carolina Alves in the Cundinamarca Open - Sopo round of 32 on clay. Laura Samson is the paper favourite — ranked #116, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 420-point clay Elo advantage — but Carolina Alves arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 6 on clay to Laura Samson's 2 of 6.

Key context

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Samson L. and Alves C. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Samson L. went 3–1 (75%) against them, Alves C. 0–3 (0%). Samson L. came out better against 2 of 3 comparable opponents, Alves C. against 0 — though 2 of those edges carry caveats (lower-tier event).

3–175%Samson L. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents0–30%Alves C. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
6–4Sets1–6
48–45Games21–43
0–1Tiebreaks1–1
2–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Samson L. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Samson L.Alves C.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–56–4 (ahead)
Season win rate60% (30–20) (ahead)56% (27–21)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1706 (ahead)1630
Clay-court ELO1680 (ahead)1625
Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 42 matches
1st-serve points won65% (ahead)62%
Return points won46%48% (ahead)
Aces / match2.7 (ahead)1.0
ClutchLast 48 vs 42 matches
Break points saved55% (ahead)53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast20°C · Clear
Wind15 km/h
Humidity44%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Samson L.Alves C.
5 — fresherDays since last match1
2 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
50Games · 7 days42 — fresher
3 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
66 — fresherGames · 14 days67
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Laura Samson vs Carolina Alves — Cundinamarca Open - Sopo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-10/alves-vs-samson-cundinamarca-open-sopo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 10 November 2026).