Keegan Smith vs Yu Hsiou Hsu | Matsuyama Round of 32

UMPIRY

MatsuyamaR32HardMon 9 Nov

Keegan Smith(5)ATP #192 · USA46%

VSToss-up

Yu Hsiou HsuATP #304 · TPE54%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Smith K.5.3/10

Clear underdog

Hsu Y.6.1/10

Even match

Why

Surface+74 Hard Elo edgeSupports Hsu Y.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1488Supports Hsu Y.

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Hsu Y.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Smith K.

ELO1 695

Hard ELO1 648

Last 104–6

Age28

Height201 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $255K2026 $108K

ELO1 704

Hard ELO1 681

Last 105–5

Age27

Height178 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $899K2026 $123K

Keegan Smith faces Yu Hsiou Hsu in the Matsuyama round of 32 on hard. Yu Hsiou Hsu holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Keegan Smith 63 games in 14 days, Yu Hsiou Hsu 139.
Head-to-head: Yu Hsiou Hsu leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Ningboo 2026.
Surface form: Keegan Smith 4 of 10, Yu Hsiou Hsu 5 of 10 on hard recently — Yu Hsiou Hsu the sharper of late.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Smith K. and Hsu Y. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Smith K. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Hsu Y. 0–1 (0%).

0–10%Smith K. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–10%Hsu Y. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

0–2Sets1–2

9–13Games14–16

0–1Tiebreaks0–0

0–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Galarneau A.#195L6-7(4) 3-6US Open · hardL6-4 4-6 4-6Stuttgart · grass

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Hsu Y. leads 1–0

Hsu Y.October 2026NingbooHard4-6 7-5 7-6(7)

Evidence

Smith K.Hsu Y.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–65–5

Season win rate53% (35–31)51% (25–24)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16951704

Hard-court ELO16481681

Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 45 matches

1st-serve points won72%67%

Return points won34%39%

Aces / match8.03.0

ClutchLast 65 vs 45 matches

Break points saved69%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast15°C · Mainly clear

Wind3 km/h

Humidity67%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Smith K.Hsu Y.

5Days since last match5

1Matches · 7 days1

28Games · 7 days26

2Matches · 14 days5

63Games · 14 days139

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Keegan Smith vs Yu Hsiou Hsu — Matsuyama Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/hsu-vs-smith-matsuyama-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).