Mattia Bellucci vs Arthur Rinderknech

UMPIRY

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR32HardWed 4 Nov · 10:00

Mattia BellucciATP #66 · ITA56%

VSToss-up

Arthur RinderknechATP #68 · FRA44%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

56%44%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Bellucci M.6.4/10

Marginal edge

Rinderknech A.5.0/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+70 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Rinderknech A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1780Against the prediction · Rinderknech A.

Recent run3-match win streakSupports Bellucci M.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Rinderknech A.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Rinderknech A.

ELO1 926

Hard ELO1 787

Last 109–1

Age25

Height175 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.6M2026 $662K

ELO1 958

Hard ELO1 815

Last 104–6

Age31

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $7.6M2026 $1.3M

Mattia Bellucci faces Arthur Rinderknech in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 32 on hard. Arthur Rinderknech is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage — but Mattia Bellucci arrives in form, winning 9 of their last 10 on hard to Arthur Rinderknech's 4 of 10.

Key context

Freshness: Mattia Bellucci comes in with 1 days of rest and 129 games in 14d, vs Arthur Rinderknech's 7 and 23.
Serve & return: Arthur Rinderknech brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 61), Mattia Bellucci the stronger return game (Return Rating 20).
Last match: Arthur Rinderknech advanced when Francisco Cerundolo retired.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Bellucci M. and Rinderknech A. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Bellucci M. went 0–2 (0%) against them, Rinderknech A. 0–2 (0%).

0–20%Bellucci M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–20%Rinderknech A. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

1–4Sets1–4

27–33Games25–28

1–2Tiebreaks0–2

0–1Deciding sets0–1

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Baez S.#52L5-7 3-6Montreal · hardL6-7(6) 6-2 4-6Kitzbuhel · clay
vs Atmane T.#73L7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-7(5)Almaty · hardL6-7 3-6Miami Masters · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Rinderknech A. leads 1–0

Rinderknech A.July 2024AtlantaHard7-6 3-6 6-1

Evidence

Bellucci M.Rinderknech A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss9–14–6

Season win rate59% (42–29)45% (20–24)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19261958

Hard-court ELO17871815

Serve vs returnLast 66 vs 38 matches

1st-serve points won73%78%

Return points won37%33%

Aces / match6.712.8

ClutchLast 66 vs 38 matches

Break points saved65%69%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast5°C · Overcast

Wind13 km/h

Humidity74%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Bellucci M.Rinderknech A.

1Days since last match7

3Matches · 7 days1

59Games · 7 days23

5Matches · 14 days1

129Games · 14 days23

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Mattia Bellucci vs Arthur Rinderknech — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-04/bellucci-vs-rinderknech-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 4 November 2026).