Tommy Paul vs Holger Rune | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00

Tommy Paul(12)ATP #14 · USA52%

VSToss-up

Holger RuneDEN48%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

52%48%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Paul T.6.8/10

Slight advantage

Rune H.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+157 Hard Elo edgeSupports Paul T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1948Supports Paul T.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Paul T.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO2 140

Hard ELO1 971

Last 107–3

Age29

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $15.8M2026 $2.9M

ELO2 057

Hard ELO1 924

Last 105–5

Age23

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $15.7M

Tommy Paul faces Holger Rune in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Tommy Paul holds the paper edge — a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Tommy Paul 138 games in 14 days, Holger Rune 94.
Surface form: Tommy Paul 5 of 7, Holger Rune 3 of 7 on hard recently — Tommy Paul the sharper of late.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Paul T. and Rune H. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Paul T. went 2–1 (67%) against them, Rune H. 1–1 (50%).

2–167%Paul T. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents1–150%Rune H. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

5–4Sets3–3

49–44Games28–30

0–2Tiebreaks1–0

1–0Deciding sets1–1

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Hurkacz H.#28W6-4 6-7 6-3Cincinnati · hardW3-6 6-3 7-6(7)Basel · hard
vs Vacherot V.#31W6-4 6-2Shanghai Masters · hardL3-6 6-3 3-6Basel · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Paul T.Rune H.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–35–5

Season win rate68% (46–22)40% (2–3)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21402057

Hard-court ELO19711924

Serve vs returnLast 66 vs 5 matches

1st-serve points won74%72%

Return points won38%29%

Aces / match6.76.4

ClutchLast 66 vs 5 matches

Break points saved65%53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast9°C · Partly cloudy

Wind8 km/h

Humidity80%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Paul T.Rune H.

2Days since last match2

3Matches · 7 days3

57Games · 7 days94

6Matches · 14 days3

138Games · 14 days94

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tommy Paul vs Holger Rune — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/paul-vs-rune-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).