Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot | Basel Quarter-final

UMPIRY

BaselQuarter-finalHardFri 30 Oct · 14:00CENTER COURT · Next on

Holger RuneDEN63%

VSSlight edge · Rune H.

Valentin VacherotATP #31 · MON37%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Rune H.

63%37%

Rune H. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Rune H.6.0/10

Even match

Vacherot V.6.2/10

Even match

Why

Surface+128 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Vacherot V.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1903Against the prediction · Vacherot V.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Vacherot V.

This eventReached the R32 here last yearAgainst the prediction · Vacherot V.

Recent run2-match win streakBoth players

ELO2 066

Hard ELO1 933

Last 106–4

Age23

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $15.7M

ELO2 011

Hard ELO1 847

Last 106–4

Age27

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $3.7M2026 $1.1M

Holger Rune faces Valentin Vacherot in the Basel quarter-final on hard. Valentin Vacherot holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Holger Rune 67 games in 14 days, Valentin Vacherot 50.
Under pressure: Holger Rune has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 90 vs Valentin Vacherot's 69).
Last match: Holger Rune dropped the opening set before beating Hubert Hurkacz 3–6 6–3 7–6.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Rune H. and Vacherot V. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Rune H. went 2–0 (100%) against them, Vacherot V. 1–1 (50%).

2–0100%Rune H. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents1–150%Vacherot V. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

4–2Sets2–3

35–32Games25–26

2–1Tiebreaks0–1

2–0Deciding sets1–0

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Halys Q.#45W6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)Basel · hardL3-6 4-6Kitzbuhel · clay
vs Hurkacz H.#28Hard to compareW3-6 6-3 7-6(7)Basel · hardW6-7 6-3 6-4Monte Carlo Masters · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Vacherot V. leads 1–0

Vacherot V.October 2025Shanghai MastersHard2-6 7-6 6-4

Evidence

Rune H.Vacherot V.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate50% (2–2)58% (25–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20662011

Hard-court ELO19331847

Serve vs returnLast 4 vs 39 matches

1st-serve points won73%77%

Return points won28%34%

Aces / match6.510.3

ClutchLast 4 vs 39 matches

Break points saved54%65%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · Next on · Not before 14:00

1This match: Rune H. v Vacherot V.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 14:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast9°C · Partly cloudy

Wind9 km/h

Humidity76%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Rune H.Vacherot V.

1Days since last match3

2Matches · 7 days2

67Games · 7 days50

2Matches · 14 days2

67Games · 14 days50

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot — Basel Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-30/rune-vs-vacherot-basel-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 30 October 2026).