Leylah Fernandez vs Himeno Sakatsume

UMPIRY

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoR32HardTue 27 Oct · 02:00 UTC

Leylah FernandezWTA #30 · CAN75%

VSClear favourite · Fernandez L.

Himeno SakatsumeWTA #115 · JPN25%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Fernandez L.

75%25%

Clear edge for Fernandez L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Fernandez L.7.1/10

Strong advantage

Sakatsume H.5.5/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+186 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fernandez L.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1805Supports Fernandez L.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Long matches4 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Sakatsume H.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 948

Hard ELO1 853

Last 107–3

Age24

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $9.0M2026 $1.6M

ELO1 750

Hard ELO1 687

Last 106–4

Age25

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $587K2026 $267K

Leylah Fernandez faces Himeno Sakatsume in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo round of 32 on hard. Leylah Fernandez holds the paper edge — ranked #30, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Leylah Fernandez comes in with 1 days of rest and 180 games in 14d, vs Himeno Sakatsume's 6 and 16.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Leylah Fernandez has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 82 vs 62).
Surface form: Leylah Fernandez 7 of 10, Himeno Sakatsume 6 of 10 on hard recently — Leylah Fernandez the sharper of late.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Fernandez L. and Sakatsume H. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fernandez L. went 5–3 (63%) against them, Sakatsume H. 1–4 (20%). Fernandez L. came out clearly better against 4 of 5 comparable opponents, Sakatsume H. against 1.

5–363%Fernandez L. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents1–420%Sakatsume H. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

11–7Sets3–8

100–76Games38–59

0–3Tiebreaks0–0

1–1Deciding sets0–1

vs Eala A.#20W6-1 6-4Stuttgart · clayL4-6 0-6Manila 125 · hard
vs Boulter K.#58W6-7 6-3 6-3Bad Homburg · grassL3-6 1-6Japan Open - Osaka · hard
vs Parks A.#64L4-6 4-6Roland Garros · clayW6-4 6-3Indian Wells · hard

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vs Jeanjean L.#92W6-1 7-5Strasbourg · clayL6-3 3-6 2-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Kudermetova P.#105W6-2 6-1Charleston · clayL5-7 2-6Canberra 125 · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Fernandez L.Sakatsume H.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–36–4

Season win rate50% (28–28)53% (32–28)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19481750

Hard-court ELO18531687

Serve vs returnLast 54 matches each

1st-serve points won65%62%

Return points won42%44%

Aces / match2.61.8

ClutchLast 54 matches each

Break points saved62%56%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Fernandez L.Sakatsume H.

1Days since last match6

4Matches · 7 days1

109Games · 7 days16

7Matches · 14 days1

180Games · 14 days16

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Leylah Fernandez vs Himeno Sakatsume — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/fernandez-vs-sakatsume-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).